1. SWAPO will lose ground in the Zambezi

Two factors will work against SWAPO here. For one, the region has always been relatively politically volatile, always taking quickly to newly formed parties (CoD did well there in its first election, RDP too).  Secondly, there’s the fact that the region was renamed, which apparently left many residents upset. Add to that the bizarre story of locals being abducted by the Botswana Defense Force, and I wouldn’t be surprised if people were unhappy.

2. RDP and DTA will battle it out for the South

In 1994, the DTA got the majority of its votes from Khomas and the surrounding regions, especially to the South. This is also where the RDP got a large chunk of its vote. The DTA will want to regain some of that southern electorate, as well as Windhoek voters. The question for the RDP is if they can offset losses they make there (and they will, given that the DTA has mobilized effectively and Hamutenya’s absence from the campaign trail) by making gains in the north. Otherwise they might just lose their official opposition status to the Venaani’s party.

3. Swapo will lose in half of the country, but it won’t matter

While SWAPO’s support is overwhelming overall, the distribution of people means they don’t actually win everywhere. Look at this map of last time around (this is the National Assembly results):

In terms of area, SWAPO only gets a majority in half the country. But of course they rack up huge totals in the tiny, but highly populated constituencies in the north as well as in Windhoek and at the coast. That adds up, and overall they win by 75 percent.